Sagarin NFL Ratings Explained: What They Are and How to Read Them
For decades, fans and analysts have checked Jeff Sagarin's numbers to see which NFL teams are really good. Here is what the ratings measure and how to read them.
In this article
The Sagarin ratings are computer rankings of sports teams created by Jeff Sagarin, a statistician who began publishing them in the 1980s. For many years they appeared in USA Today and became one of the most widely quoted measures of team strength in the NFL and college football. The core idea is simple: instead of ranking teams by their win-loss record alone, the system estimates how strong each team really is based on whom they played and how they performed.
What the Sagarin ratings measure
Each team receives a rating, a number that represents its overall strength. The difference between two teams' ratings is designed to estimate the margin between them on a neutral field. If Team A is rated 25.0 and Team B 20.0, the system expects Team A to be about five points better.
The ratings take three main things into account:
- Results – wins, losses and, in some versions, the margin of victory.
- Strength of schedule – beating good teams counts for more than beating weak ones.
- Home-field advantage – the system estimates how much playing at home is worth, expressed in points.
The different Sagarin numbers
Sagarin's tables traditionally show several ratings side by side, because each answers a slightly different question:
| Rating | What it uses | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Scores and margins of victory | Estimating who would win and by how much in a future game |
| Elo-style rating | Wins and losses only, not margins | Judging what a team has accomplished, without rewarding running up the score |
| Combined rating | A blend of the different methods | A single overall ranking |
| Recent | Gives more weight to recent games | Spotting teams that are improving or fading |
The wins-and-losses version is the one that was used for years in college football's Bowl Championship Series formula, because the BCS did not want its computer rankings to reward margin of victory.
How to read a Sagarin table
- Find each team's rating. Higher is better.
- Compare two teams. Subtract the lower rating from the higher one to estimate the neutral-field margin.
- Adjust for home field. Add the home-advantage value shown in the table, typically a couple of points in the NFL, to the home team's side.
- Check schedule strength. The strength-of-schedule column shows how difficult each team's opponents have been, which explains why a team with a great record can have a modest rating.
For example, if a home team is rated 24.0, the visitor 22.5 and home field is worth about 2 points, the ratings suggest the home team is roughly 3.5 points better in that game.
Why fans and analysts use them
Win-loss records can mislead, especially early in a season. A team that starts 4–0 against weak opponents may be worse than a 2–2 team that has played the league's best. Ratings like Sagarin's correct for that, which is why they are useful for:
- comparing teams that have not played each other
- judging how difficult a remaining schedule is
- spotting teams whose record flatters them, or hides how good they are
- following the race for playoff positions with more context than standings alone
Limitations
No rating system can see injuries, coaching changes or a starting quarterback returning from the bench. Early in the season, ratings rely on very few games and can swing wildly. The NFL also plays only 17 regular-season games, so there is far less data than in college basketball or baseball, and a couple of unusual results can move a team a long way. Treat the ratings as a starting point for discussion rather than a verdict.
Sagarin and other NFL power ratings
Sagarin was one of the first widely known computer ranking systems, but today fans can compare many others:
- ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) – a predictive rating with season projections.
- DVOA – a play-by-play efficiency measure that compares every play with a league baseline.
- Elo ratings – simple, transparent systems that update after every game based on the result and the opponent's strength.
Most of these systems agree on the best and worst teams and differ in the middle of the league, which is exactly where looking at several ratings at once is most useful. If you are new to how the NFL season and postseason are structured, our guide to when each sport is in season shows the calendar.
Frequently asked questions
What are the Sagarin ratings?
Computer ratings created by statistician Jeff Sagarin that estimate the strength of sports teams based on results, schedule strength and home-field advantage.
How do you use Sagarin ratings to compare two teams?
Subtract one team's rating from the other's to estimate the margin on a neutral field, then add the home-field value to the home team's side.
Were the Sagarin ratings part of the BCS?
Yes. A version of the Sagarin ratings that used only wins and losses was one of the computer rankings in college football's BCS formula.
Are Sagarin ratings accurate?
They are a reliable way to compare overall team strength, but they cannot account for injuries or lineup changes and are less reliable early in the season.